CHURCHILL, Winston S. (1874-1965); YOUNG, James C[arleton] (1858-1918); LE GALLIENNE, Richard (1866-1947). Manuscript document signed ("Winston S. Churchill", "James C. Young", and "Richard Le Gallienne"), Minneapolis, 23 January 1901.

One page, 205 x 150mm on Young's personal stationery.

Winston Churchill's own copy of his bet on the future of the United Kingdom with James Young in 1901: "…ten years from this date the British Empire will be substantially reduced…." A remarkable piece dating from Churchill's tour of North Americana where he gave talks on his experiences during the Boer War in various U.S. and Canadian cities. The 26-year-old Churchill, who had been recently elected to the House of Commons, arrived in Minneapolis in late January 1901 amidst news reports of Queen Victoria's imminent demise, leading him to remark, “A greater loss than fertile province or loss upon the field of battle threatens us at this time. I can but ask the American people to hope with us that the new century may not dawn with one of the greatest losses the world could ever know-the loss of our sovereign, the Queen Victoria."¹ The Queen died on 21 January 1901.

The present manuscript concerns Churchill's acquaintance with James Carelton Young, a Minneapolis entrepreneur and bibliophile. The circumstances of their meeting is not presently known, but during Churchill's stay in Minneapolis, Young hosted the young M.P. at a dinner party at his home the day following the Queen's death, together with the poet Richard Le Gallienne. During the dinner, the Queen's death and its impact on the future of the British Empire became the subject of conversation. According to Todd Ronnel's 2001 article on the meeting, "Young was certain the Empire would soon begin to crumble; Churchill was adamant that nothing of the sort would happen.’ Both parties took such firm stances on the matter that they ‘agreed to put their money where their mouths were’ and take a bet."² The bet read as follows:

"Mr. James C Young bets Mr. Winston Churchill one hundred pounds even that within ten years from this date the British Empire will be substantially reduced by loss in Australia or Canada, or India equal to a quarter by population of one of these provinces: in other words that the British Crown will lose one quarter of India or of Canadas or of Australia before ten years are gone." Although Churchill won the bet, Young was eventually proven correct. In 1947, India and Pakistan gained independence.

This document exists in two versions. The present version, was the copy retained by Churchill, while the other version, with the body of the text in Churchill's hand, was retained by Young. Interestingly, both the present and the "mirror" version of these letters had both been owned by A.S.W. Rosenbach: he purchased the present version at Sotheby's in 1948, and the other from Young's daughter in 1945.

[With:] LE GALLIENNE, Richard (1866-1947). Rubáiyát of Omar Khayyám. New York: John Lane the Bodley Head, 1900. Octavo (197 x 122mm), in titled and illustrated boards (spine cracked and stripped and front board partly separated). With an autograph quotation signed ("Richard Le Gallienne") accomplished on the front endpaper opposite the half-title dated "Minneapolis, Jan, 1901." Le Gallienne quotes from William Watson's Lachryme Musarum, which he "quoted for the benefit of Winston Spencer Churchill…." Considering the subject of the bet between Young and Churchill, the choice was apropos: "'Captains & conquerors leave a little dust, and Kings a dubious legend of their reign; The swords of Caesars, they are less than rust; The poet doth remains.'"

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1. Larry Millett, Lost Twin Cities (St. Paul: Minnesota Historical Society Press, 1992) 208–09; St. Paul Pioneer Press, 20 January 1901, 4.
2. Ronnel, "Churchill in Minnesota," Minnesota History 57:7, 2001.

The Earl Fitzwilliam (his sale, Sotheby's, 1 March 1948, lot 471)
A. S. W. Rosenbach (purchaser).